* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/05/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 109 106 104 98 92 88 80 78 77 79 81 83 85 86 83 V (KT) LAND 115 112 109 106 104 98 92 88 80 78 77 79 81 83 85 86 83 V (KT) LGEM 115 111 107 103 99 95 93 90 86 82 81 83 88 94 96 94 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 7 7 8 3 3 5 4 6 5 5 3 5 6 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -6 -3 0 -2 1 3 3 -1 0 -6 -6 -4 0 5 6 SHEAR DIR 350 24 16 40 70 87 358 155 211 201 324 343 292 246 226 196 200 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.7 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 140 141 140 138 134 130 134 136 138 139 139 139 139 141 147 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -51.8 -52.2 -51.7 -52.2 -51.6 -52.2 -51.9 -52.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 50 51 53 53 52 47 42 40 39 38 38 39 41 49 52 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 22 21 22 21 20 21 18 18 19 20 20 20 21 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 43 48 44 43 48 51 26 37 49 56 67 73 62 57 65 49 31 200 MB DIV -13 -6 -26 -7 9 -3 -1 19 17 22 -19 0 -4 12 53 53 -15 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -3 -3 -4 -6 0 0 0 0 2 -1 0 1 0 3 LAND (KM) 1938 1804 1670 1524 1379 1067 751 473 276 279 491 543 675 832 1004 1183 1379 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.4 138.7 139.9 141.3 142.6 145.5 148.6 151.6 154.5 157.3 160.1 162.7 165.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 15 15 14 14 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 14 10 10 12 14 16 4 3 6 19 28 36 17 19 29 22 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -13. -22. -31. -38. -44. -48. -51. -51. -52. -53. -55. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -2. -1. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -11. -17. -23. -27. -35. -37. -38. -36. -34. -32. -30. -29. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 14.3 137.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/05/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 764.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.06 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 4.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/05/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##