* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/05/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 113 110 106 104 96 90 86 83 79 79 76 79 82 83 85 86 V (KT) LAND 115 113 110 106 104 96 90 86 83 79 79 76 79 82 83 85 86 V (KT) LGEM 115 112 108 104 99 93 91 90 90 87 83 83 87 93 96 98 98 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 6 6 6 9 5 3 4 1 1 4 6 5 5 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -5 -3 0 2 3 7 3 -1 -5 -3 -4 0 4 SHEAR DIR 306 326 341 39 30 61 60 59 127 134 126 21 30 358 261 247 218 SST (C) 27.6 27.9 27.9 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.9 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 144 144 140 139 139 137 133 131 134 137 138 139 139 139 139 144 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.0 -52.4 -51.7 -52.2 -51.6 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0 -52.7 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 54 50 50 55 53 51 48 42 41 39 38 39 43 46 52 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 20 21 20 19 20 20 19 19 16 18 20 18 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR 48 46 46 55 44 42 41 28 35 44 51 49 50 40 43 31 34 200 MB DIV 7 -10 -13 -1 -14 -3 -1 0 26 -4 -10 -33 4 -6 14 5 35 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -7 -5 -4 -4 -4 -6 0 4 0 -3 -1 0 2 0 3 LAND (KM) 2162 2039 1916 1782 1648 1361 1043 732 458 261 270 477 534 652 832 1022 1240 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.4 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.3 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.2 136.4 137.5 138.8 140.0 142.7 145.7 148.8 151.8 154.6 157.3 160.0 162.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 13 14 15 14 14 13 13 12 12 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 9 17 15 9 8 13 16 4 3 6 21 28 34 18 19 33 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -13. -21. -30. -37. -44. -48. -51. -51. -52. -53. -55. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 4. 7. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. -0. -1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -5. -3. -1. -2. -1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -11. -19. -25. -29. -32. -36. -36. -39. -36. -33. -32. -30. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 14.3 135.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/05/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.69 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 751.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.07 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.5% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 4.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/05/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##