* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/02/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 96 99 100 100 99 95 89 86 81 85 83 80 80 83 82 81 V (KT) LAND 90 96 99 100 100 99 95 89 86 81 85 83 80 80 83 82 81 V (KT) LGEM 90 98 102 103 103 103 99 94 88 83 82 82 80 81 82 81 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 12 6 4 3 7 6 8 6 7 8 3 9 9 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -6 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 -4 -2 2 6 6 9 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 52 60 66 61 39 23 3 254 311 304 40 126 129 108 116 114 121 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.7 27.3 27.9 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.8 27.5 27.6 27.2 27.0 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 145 141 140 142 138 144 144 140 138 143 140 141 137 135 139 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -51.9 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 61 61 61 61 61 63 59 55 49 48 53 51 46 44 41 39 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 16 17 20 21 21 22 21 25 24 22 22 24 24 24 850 MB ENV VOR -7 1 9 10 9 26 28 45 43 52 51 51 40 37 47 53 65 200 MB DIV 48 56 19 -1 0 16 8 20 -11 -1 -6 -21 1 13 0 26 -15 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -6 -6 -7 -6 -3 -1 -3 -6 -4 0 -4 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1800 1896 1996 2083 2162 2353 2252 2016 1781 1532 1284 1042 805 587 393 348 495 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 13.9 13.8 13.6 13.5 13.6 13.8 14.2 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.2 126.4 127.6 128.7 129.8 132.1 134.5 136.9 139.3 141.8 144.3 146.7 149.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 21 12 7 7 5 11 12 16 12 15 8 11 11 12 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -0. -3. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. -23. -23. -24. -25. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 11. 10. 7. 4. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 8. 6. 11. 9. 6. 5. 7. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 10. 10. 9. 5. -1. -4. -9. -5. -7. -10. -10. -7. -8. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 14.1 125.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/02/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.22 2.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 10.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.66 6.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 487.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.37 -3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 4.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.79 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 54% is 8.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 54.3% 36.0% 32.3% 28.8% 20.3% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.2% 15.3% 13.5% 10.9% 14.0% 4.8% 4.3% 0.7% Bayesian: 5.8% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 24.8% 17.6% 15.3% 13.3% 11.5% 7.1% 1.4% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/02/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##