* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP082018 07/28/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 26 25 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 26 25 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 27 28 26 28 28 24 27 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 6 8 7 7 11 11 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 278 278 275 275 283 258 271 269 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.1 26.7 26.9 27.3 27.2 26.8 26.7 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 130 132 137 135 131 131 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.7 -55.1 -55.2 -55.8 -55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.7 -0.5 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 60 60 60 59 55 49 46 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -31 -34 -33 -27 -32 -20 -20 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 10 3 16 18 -6 35 10 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -10 -8 -6 -6 -5 -2 -5 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2247 2309 2269 2168 2068 1881 1681 1475 1267 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 131.9 132.9 133.8 134.7 135.6 137.3 139.2 141.2 143.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 4 3 6 11 7 3 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. 25. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -10. -16. -21. -24. -25. -26. -25. -26. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -9. -14. -20. -25. -26. -27. -27. -27. -26. -25. -27. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.1 131.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082018 GILMA 07/28/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.64 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 40.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.27 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082018 GILMA 07/28/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##