* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP082018 07/27/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 28 28 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 28 28 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 14 18 24 27 26 29 28 28 36 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 5 6 4 8 7 6 8 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 309 281 268 267 277 271 274 280 268 268 287 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.1 27.2 27.1 26.7 27.1 27.0 26.1 26.2 26.5 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 136 135 131 135 134 125 126 129 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -55.2 -55.3 -55.7 -55.8 -56.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 62 60 59 57 53 46 43 47 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -19 -16 -21 -24 -21 -20 -7 -7 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 34 43 31 20 8 -3 9 -1 -22 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -12 -11 -11 -11 -9 -6 -6 -3 -4 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2084 2155 2230 2288 2300 2094 1892 1643 1410 1172 946 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.3 15.5 16.2 16.8 17.2 17.4 17.4 17.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.4 130.5 131.6 132.5 133.5 135.3 137.1 139.4 141.6 143.9 146.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 9 10 9 10 11 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 4 4 4 2 10 7 0 0 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 23. 23. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -13. -19. -25. -27. -27. -27. -27. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -6. -10. -15. -21. -26. -32. -32. -32. -31. -30. -32. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 129.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082018 GILMA 07/27/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.65 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082018 GILMA 07/27/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##