* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092018 07/27/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 33 33 33 34 35 36 36 36 38 41 44 48 50 52 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 33 33 33 34 35 36 36 36 38 41 44 48 50 52 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 33 32 32 31 31 31 31 32 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 17 20 26 26 25 24 20 23 24 17 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 -1 -1 -4 -5 -3 -7 -7 -2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 351 340 332 342 342 332 341 340 344 333 322 303 304 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.5 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.7 28.0 27.7 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 140 139 139 145 146 145 142 143 146 143 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 8 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 66 64 60 58 60 60 59 60 60 58 59 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 8 2 -5 -7 4 14 23 15 10 -1 -3 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 21 16 11 -19 -44 -38 -30 0 2 -13 -16 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -6 -4 -2 -2 -4 -4 3 3 4 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2207 2114 2022 1927 1834 1640 1427 1211 1002 804 682 695 844 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.9 11.4 11.9 12.4 12.8 13.2 13.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 136.3 137.3 138.3 139.4 140.4 142.6 144.9 147.2 149.7 152.4 155.2 158.3 161.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 14 15 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 5 6 7 7 11 16 15 15 10 38 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -5. -8. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -10. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 8. 11. 14. 18. 20. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.8 136.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092018 NINE 07/27/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.68 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.06 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.74 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 11.6% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 3.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 2.0% 15.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 5.1% 3.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092018 NINE 07/27/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##