* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/15/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 41 41 38 40 40 40 41 40 38 37 37 38 40 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 39 41 41 38 40 40 40 41 40 38 37 37 38 40 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 38 39 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 17 14 10 9 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -6 -4 -3 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 323 304 289 255 249 352 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.3 24.9 21.0 20.8 14.4 8.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 108 105 84 83 70 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 91 91 90 75 75 66 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -55.9 -55.9 -56.2 -56.3 -56.0 -55.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 56 58 55 51 47 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 47 52 36 25 -5 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 19 26 18 4 -3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -5 1 13 2 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 620 564 528 496 423 302 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.0 38.7 39.4 40.5 41.5 44.0 46.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.3 63.3 62.3 61.1 59.9 57.3 54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 12 14 15 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. -0. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 3. 3. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 38.0 64.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/15/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.74 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.20 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 199.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 70.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.32 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 13.5% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.8% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.4% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/15/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/15/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 39 41 41 38 40 40 40 41 40 38 37 37 38 40 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 39 39 36 38 38 38 39 38 36 35 35 36 38 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 35 32 34 34 34 35 34 32 31 31 32 34 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 27 24 26 26 26 27 26 24 23 23 24 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT