* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032018 07/11/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 79 77 72 59 44 29 24 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 78 79 77 72 59 44 29 24 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 78 76 72 63 48 40 37 38 39 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 25 24 29 29 31 35 36 27 17 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 4 8 5 4 9 6 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 213 204 207 204 222 229 235 205 175 189 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 25.6 24.3 20.6 12.2 5.6 9.4 9.5 10.6 10.8 10.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 115 105 87 72 69 71 70 68 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 104 96 81 70 69 70 68 66 66 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -53.8 -53.7 -52.8 -49.4 -46.8 -46.2 -45.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 -0.1 0.6 0.7 1.5 2.7 4.0 5.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 50 49 50 47 47 40 47 57 55 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 26 30 32 31 27 21 18 20 21 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 31 40 53 49 2 27 127 163 178 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 49 60 13 -2 9 -20 -1 12 18 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 6 0 7 -11 -39 -62 -55 -41 -31 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 587 536 441 342 267 290 974 1369 964 786 681 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.0 38.8 40.5 42.5 44.5 48.3 51.7 54.9 57.8 60.4 63.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.8 64.4 62.0 59.1 56.3 49.0 40.2 31.1 23.8 18.6 13.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 26 27 29 30 32 32 28 21 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 22 CX,CY: 17/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -21. -29. -38. -46. -51. -55. -59. -62. -64. -65. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -13. -11. -14. -16. -19. -21. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 5. 2. -3. -8. -7. -7. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. -3. -8. -21. -36. -51. -56. -59. -65. -67. -70. -75. -78. -80. -82. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 37.0 66.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 CHRIS 07/11/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.22 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 513.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 CHRIS 07/11/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 CHRIS 07/11/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 7( 14) 4( 17) 0( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 78 79 77 72 59 44 29 24 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 80 78 73 60 45 30 25 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 74 69 56 41 26 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 65 52 37 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT