* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032018 07/11/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 88 88 87 84 73 58 42 36 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 88 88 88 87 84 73 58 42 36 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 89 89 89 90 81 57 44 39 40 43 43 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 14 14 16 27 33 37 32 39 35 31 27 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 2 4 2 6 4 2 2 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 334 317 287 226 210 209 214 231 230 203 188 172 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 26.3 26.2 26.4 26.2 21.7 8.2 6.9 10.5 11.2 12.2 12.1 11.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 119 119 122 120 91 70 69 71 70 69 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 103 105 108 108 84 69 69 69 68 66 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.4 -54.9 -54.4 -54.1 -54.9 -54.6 -54.0 -52.1 -50.0 -48.4 -48.6 -49.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.7 0.1 0.9 1.8 2.8 3.6 4.2 3.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 41 48 50 49 47 44 42 40 47 49 49 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 21 23 26 33 31 25 20 21 22 20 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 15 17 35 30 52 16 -1 67 115 150 120 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 32 52 63 50 16 11 -13 -40 3 14 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 15 3 19 6 -31 -50 -49 -33 -28 -18 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 400 483 598 556 537 341 89 566 1224 1133 682 524 319 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.9 34.9 35.8 37.2 38.6 42.3 45.9 49.1 51.7 53.9 55.9 57.8 59.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.9 70.5 69.1 67.1 65.1 59.8 53.1 45.3 36.5 27.3 20.1 15.1 10.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 18 21 24 29 31 31 30 26 20 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 9 CX,CY: 7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -17. -26. -35. -44. -50. -56. -61. -64. -66. -67. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -12. -14. -14. -14. -16. -18. -20. -22. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 10. 10. 3. -3. -2. -2. -6. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -12. -27. -43. -49. -55. -64. -76. -78. -79. -80. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 33.9 71.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 CHRIS 07/11/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 633.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 1.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 CHRIS 07/11/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 CHRIS 07/11/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 11( 20) 10( 28) 9( 34) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 88 88 88 87 84 73 58 42 36 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 84 84 83 80 69 54 38 32 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 81 80 77 66 51 35 29 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 74 71 60 45 29 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 63 52 37 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 88 79 73 70 67 56 41 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 88 88 79 73 69 58 43 27 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS