* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032018 07/10/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 68 70 73 77 85 78 61 49 39 35 32 31 31 29 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 68 70 73 77 85 78 55 49 39 35 32 31 31 30 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 67 69 71 73 78 76 59 45 39 40 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 12 12 12 10 13 27 31 31 38 47 41 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -2 -2 1 0 0 2 1 2 -2 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 17 13 8 356 329 290 222 209 223 247 262 272 290 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.7 26.6 27.3 24.6 12.7 7.5 7.0 10.3 10.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 134 133 133 122 131 106 71 68 68 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 106 108 110 110 112 106 115 94 68 67 67 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -53.6 -54.3 -54.0 -54.6 -54.7 -55.6 -55.4 -53.7 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.4 -0.4 0.4 0.0 -0.2 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 8 8 7 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 36 35 35 35 46 49 47 45 44 43 34 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 19 20 22 24 32 29 22 18 16 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -19 -10 -25 -22 9 46 55 57 -1 -32 41 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 -5 22 33 34 49 52 44 10 16 -12 -20 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 3 1 8 9 18 11 17 2 -31 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 342 343 346 357 372 494 506 360 252 0 472 1048 1406 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.3 32.5 32.6 33.1 33.5 35.2 37.7 40.7 43.8 46.7 49.2 51.1 53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.3 74.0 73.8 73.2 72.6 70.3 67.1 63.3 58.7 53.2 46.6 38.9 31.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 7 10 15 19 22 24 25 26 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 15 14 11 11 3 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):150/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -26. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -6. -11. -16. -20. -23. -26. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 13. 10. -1. -6. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 13. 17. 25. 18. 1. -11. -21. -25. -28. -29. -29. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 32.3 74.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 CHRIS 07/10/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.74 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.20 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 530.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.38 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.64 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 17.8% 12.5% 9.8% 8.9% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.3% 10.0% 16.0% 8.5% 0.7% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 9.3% 9.7% 6.2% 3.2% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 CHRIS 07/10/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 CHRIS 07/10/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 4( 7) 4( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 63 66 68 70 73 77 85 78 55 49 39 35 32 31 31 30 18HR AGO 60 59 62 64 66 69 73 81 74 51 45 35 31 28 27 27 26 12HR AGO 60 57 56 58 60 63 67 75 68 45 39 29 25 22 21 21 20 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 52 55 59 67 60 37 31 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT