* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032018 07/09/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 62 63 67 69 77 75 65 50 38 32 28 27 26 25 V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 62 63 67 69 77 75 65 50 38 31 28 26 26 24 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 59 61 63 66 69 73 65 48 40 37 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 10 12 11 14 16 14 30 38 44 51 49 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -2 -2 0 -3 2 0 5 2 -1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 45 23 26 5 355 318 227 212 208 230 239 252 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.0 26.3 24.6 19.6 9.5 5.7 9.3 10.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 133 134 135 125 119 106 82 68 67 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 105 108 109 112 107 105 94 75 67 67 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 -54.9 -55.3 -54.7 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 6 8 7 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 36 36 35 33 39 45 47 41 41 39 38 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 20 20 19 21 21 28 28 25 20 17 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -22 -20 -9 -21 11 24 47 48 28 15 -17 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 -6 -1 17 44 30 55 38 53 -8 -14 -28 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 0 0 6 10 7 25 18 18 -26 -45 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 345 346 347 343 345 398 582 475 305 209 85 628 1166 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.2 32.3 32.3 32.6 32.9 34.1 36.2 39.0 42.1 45.3 47.9 50.0 52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.4 74.3 74.2 73.8 73.5 71.8 69.1 65.6 61.8 57.4 51.7 44.6 37.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 3 4 7 12 17 21 22 23 25 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 16 15 14 12 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -19. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. -1. -6. -12. -19. -24. -29. -32. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 0. 8. 8. 4. -5. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 12. 14. 22. 20. 10. -5. -17. -23. -27. -28. -29. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 32.2 74.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 CHRIS 07/09/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.75 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.23 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 484.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.42 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.75 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 17.3% 11.9% 9.3% 8.6% 12.0% 12.4% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 6.9% 10.5% 3.6% 0.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 8.1% 7.6% 4.3% 3.0% 4.3% 4.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 CHRIS 07/09/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 CHRIS 07/09/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 60 62 63 67 69 77 75 65 50 38 31 28 26 26 24 18HR AGO 55 54 57 59 60 64 66 74 72 62 47 35 28 25 23 23 21 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 54 58 60 68 66 56 41 29 22 19 17 17 15 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 50 52 60 58 48 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT