* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032018 07/08/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 57 59 63 66 73 79 83 75 63 52 50 49 49 47 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 57 59 63 66 73 79 83 75 63 46 43 43 43 41 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 57 59 62 65 68 73 75 59 45 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 10 10 6 11 15 12 15 22 38 38 41 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 0 0 -1 -7 0 -4 3 -2 1 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 342 327 6 55 48 45 16 306 236 228 208 225 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.7 27.1 24.5 16.2 9.2 6.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 132 131 130 131 135 133 128 106 76 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 107 108 106 104 104 106 111 113 112 96 73 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.1 -55.2 -55.3 -55.0 -54.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 1.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 7 6 8 7 7 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 45 42 43 42 35 33 38 39 40 38 36 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 18 20 19 20 20 23 25 30 28 24 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -21 -30 -9 -19 -29 -6 33 30 49 20 10 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 5 -1 1 9 -6 22 19 75 29 35 6 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 1 2 0 3 5 10 13 3 -17 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 273 295 317 324 332 332 315 329 445 369 204 26 399 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.7 32.5 32.3 32.2 32.1 32.1 32.6 33.7 35.8 39.0 42.9 47.3 51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.9 74.8 74.8 74.8 74.9 74.9 74.3 73.0 70.8 67.4 62.4 55.9 49.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 1 1 1 2 6 11 17 24 29 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 19 18 16 16 16 16 13 16 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):140/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 1. -4. -9. -15. -19. -21. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 5. 9. 14. 11. 5. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 14. 18. 21. 28. 34. 38. 30. 18. 7. 5. 4. 4. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 32.7 74.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 CHRIS 07/08/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.75 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.30 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.75 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 330.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.53 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 17.4% 12.0% 8.9% 7.8% 11.5% 13.8% 16.8% Logistic: 12.8% 28.2% 27.7% 8.0% 2.1% 5.4% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.2% 0.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 8.0% 15.4% 13.6% 5.7% 3.3% 5.8% 5.0% 5.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 CHRIS 07/08/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 CHRIS 07/08/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 53 57 59 63 66 73 79 83 75 63 46 43 43 43 41 18HR AGO 45 44 48 52 54 58 61 68 74 78 70 58 41 38 38 38 36 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 47 51 54 61 67 71 63 51 34 31 31 31 29 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 41 44 51 57 61 53 41 24 21 21 21 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT