* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032018 07/08/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 45 48 53 58 66 72 80 83 77 61 58 56 55 55 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 45 48 53 58 66 72 80 83 77 50 46 45 44 44 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 43 45 50 54 57 61 68 63 50 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 14 9 11 13 8 17 15 18 28 33 32 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -3 0 1 3 -2 0 -6 1 5 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 314 331 330 316 350 38 18 333 274 209 208 196 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.1 26.5 23.8 15.0 9.3 4.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 136 135 135 134 134 126 122 101 74 69 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 110 108 107 107 108 110 108 107 91 71 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.6 -55.4 -55.2 -55.3 -55.1 -54.8 -54.2 -54.0 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.2 1.0 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 5 6 5 7 6 8 7 5 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 50 48 43 40 39 35 39 50 56 52 51 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 15 16 19 19 22 24 28 34 34 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 3 -5 -19 -30 -12 -29 -14 58 69 49 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 10 18 3 -15 15 0 33 39 64 3 25 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 0 1 3 0 12 -10 -41 -20 -59 -50 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 198 214 230 242 255 286 311 359 538 411 193 16 280 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.2 33.1 33.0 33.0 32.9 32.8 33.3 34.4 36.6 39.8 43.4 47.4 51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.5 75.3 75.2 75.0 74.9 74.5 73.6 72.1 69.4 65.5 61.0 56.0 51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 1 1 1 3 6 12 19 23 26 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 24 24 23 22 19 14 7 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 14. 14. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 2. -2. -7. -13. -18. -20. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 9. 11. 17. 24. 24. 14. 12. 11. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 19. 23. 31. 37. 45. 48. 42. 26. 23. 21. 20. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 33.2 75.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 THREE 07/08/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.68 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.41 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.56 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 12.6% 8.8% 6.7% 5.6% 9.0% 10.1% 13.7% Logistic: 1.8% 3.9% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 1.1% 1.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.5% 3.8% 2.4% 1.9% 3.4% 3.7% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 THREE 07/08/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 THREE 07/08/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 42 45 48 53 58 66 72 80 83 77 50 46 45 44 44 18HR AGO 35 34 38 41 44 49 54 62 68 76 79 73 46 42 41 40 40 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 42 47 55 61 69 72 66 39 35 34 33 33 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 33 38 46 52 60 63 57 30 26 25 24 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT