* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032018 07/07/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 41 48 55 61 67 71 72 69 62 53 55 56 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 41 48 55 61 67 71 72 69 62 52 54 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 41 44 48 52 55 52 46 42 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 5 10 14 14 13 6 3 6 2 13 33 33 41 36 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 -4 -4 -1 1 2 0 0 4 -2 5 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 20 311 303 298 294 296 325 15 49 15 273 249 249 254 257 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.0 27.1 27.7 24.4 19.0 9.1 6.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 138 138 137 137 136 133 123 126 134 103 80 68 67 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 109 110 110 109 108 109 108 102 105 113 90 74 67 66 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -55.9 -55.5 -55.6 -55.9 -55.5 -55.7 -55.5 -55.6 -55.9 -56.5 -56.3 -56.4 -55.6 -55.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 4 4 6 5 7 6 9 7 5 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 57 53 51 50 45 43 37 37 39 45 48 50 48 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 10 11 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 10 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 17 1 -6 -4 -26 -2 -16 -2 31 69 54 25 4 -37 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 48 14 13 30 -10 8 -5 10 33 49 16 16 -2 -16 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 2 2 -1 -1 1 5 3 -4 31 23 14 16 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 251 234 217 223 231 255 280 304 375 517 470 414 273 103 152 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.0 33.2 33.4 33.5 33.6 33.7 33.9 34.2 34.9 36.1 37.8 39.8 42.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.8 74.8 74.8 74.6 74.4 74.0 73.5 72.9 71.7 70.0 67.8 64.9 61.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 8 11 14 17 22 24 23 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 23 24 25 25 24 20 14 9 12 15 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 23. 22. 20. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 6. 0. -7. -13. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 23. 30. 36. 42. 46. 47. 44. 37. 28. 30. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 33.0 74.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 THREE 07/07/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.76 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.16 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.50 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.70 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.98 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 12.1% 8.1% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 21.0% 11.4% 2.4% 0.9% 5.3% 5.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 11.2% 6.5% 2.7% 0.3% 1.8% 4.9% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 THREE 07/07/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 THREE 07/07/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 36 41 48 55 61 67 71 72 69 62 52 54 55 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 33 38 45 52 58 64 68 69 66 59 49 51 52 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 33 40 47 53 59 63 64 61 54 44 46 47 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 24 31 38 44 50 54 55 52 45 35 37 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT