* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/07/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 71 70 70 69 65 61 58 53 53 55 56 57 59 60 61 V (KT) LAND 70 70 71 70 70 69 65 61 58 53 53 55 56 57 59 60 61 V (KT) LGEM 70 70 70 69 69 69 67 63 58 52 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 4 9 9 6 17 17 28 34 41 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 2 6 4 3 0 0 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 312 315 323 328 290 298 269 278 279 282 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.4 26.5 26.3 26.0 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.5 28.1 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 118 120 118 116 127 130 132 134 142 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 117 119 117 115 127 130 132 134 142 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.2 -54.3 -54.9 -54.5 -55.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 11 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 59 58 59 54 52 51 53 55 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 15 13 12 13 10 9 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 49 45 52 52 42 44 50 57 46 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 19 22 21 21 18 35 46 48 37 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -2 -1 0 4 4 12 0 14 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 789 752 732 716 728 557 385 325 178 46 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.2 13.2 14.2 15.4 16.5 17.7 18.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.3 49.4 50.6 51.9 53.2 56.5 60.3 64.5 68.7 72.9 77.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 15 18 20 21 21 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 7 9 5 0 12 14 22 24 36 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -3. -7. -9. -8. -6. -4. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -6. -9. -12. -16. -18. -19. -19. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. -0. -0. -1. -5. -9. -12. -17. -17. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 10.7 48.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/07/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.73 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.18 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 317.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 63.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.40 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 15.3% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 9.1% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 9.0% 7.5% 3.9% 1.4% 2.3% 0.7% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 8.3% 6.2% 1.3% 0.5% 4.1% 3.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/07/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/07/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 4( 12) 3( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 70 71 70 70 69 65 61 58 53 53 55 56 57 59 60 61 18HR AGO 70 69 70 69 69 68 64 60 57 52 52 54 55 56 58 59 60 12HR AGO 70 67 66 65 65 64 60 56 53 48 48 50 51 52 54 55 56 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 60 59 55 51 48 43 43 45 46 47 49 50 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT