* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP072018 07/06/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 30 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 31 27 23 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 12 14 14 15 19 29 32 37 47 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 6 3 3 2 1 0 1 -1 -9 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 214 236 254 249 242 237 233 252 265 275 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.2 22.5 22.4 22.2 22.3 22.2 21.6 22.5 22.8 22.6 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 85 88 87 84 85 84 77 86 89 87 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 47 43 39 36 31 26 23 20 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 18 16 16 13 11 8 6 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -4 -22 -22 -10 -7 -6 -4 -12 -28 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -11 -4 -4 5 -4 -16 -17 -27 -23 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 15 12 15 16 4 10 7 8 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1541 1619 1704 1740 1778 1879 1906 1727 1580 1434 1310 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.8 22.3 22.7 23.1 23.7 24.2 24.5 25.0 25.5 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.4 129.6 130.8 131.9 133.0 135.1 137.0 138.9 140.6 142.4 144.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -15. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -3. -11. -21. -30. -32. -33. -35. -37. -42. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -17. -22. -26. -27. -25. -23. -21. -19. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -17. -22. -29. -38. -49. -62. -72. -76. -79. -84. -88. -95.-102. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.2 128.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072018 FABIO 07/06/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.20 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.20 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 270.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.36 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 FABIO 07/06/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##