* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/06/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 72 74 74 73 71 67 65 64 65 67 69 72 76 80 82 V (KT) LAND 65 70 72 74 74 73 71 67 65 64 65 67 69 72 76 80 82 V (KT) LGEM 65 72 76 78 79 79 76 72 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 6 6 3 10 14 18 20 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 1 1 -1 0 2 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 18 36 37 342 313 332 295 296 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.0 26.3 26.4 26.9 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 116 118 119 114 118 120 126 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 113 116 117 112 118 120 126 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.0 -54.5 -54.4 -54.7 -54.3 -54.7 -54.7 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 61 61 62 58 55 52 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 13 12 12 12 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 61 52 54 54 46 40 41 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 17 31 50 34 -13 4 0 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -3 -1 0 -1 -2 2 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1026 975 930 881 840 791 751 475 449 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.3 13.1 14.0 14.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.6 45.6 46.6 47.7 48.8 51.3 54.5 58.1 61.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 12 15 17 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 3 9 4 6 2 26 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 2. -0. -1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 10.5 44.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/06/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 11.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.81 6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 4.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.19 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 277.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.71 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.2% 38.4% 30.1% 22.4% 0.0% 15.6% 12.8% 0.0% Logistic: 10.4% 28.8% 24.5% 12.6% 3.6% 11.4% 3.4% 1.6% Bayesian: 16.3% 7.2% 9.6% 1.6% 0.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 15.9% 24.8% 21.4% 12.2% 1.5% 9.4% 5.5% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/06/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/06/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 5( 11) 4( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 70 72 74 74 73 71 67 65 64 65 67 69 72 76 80 82 18HR AGO 65 64 66 68 68 67 65 61 59 58 59 61 63 66 70 74 76 12HR AGO 65 62 61 63 63 62 60 56 54 53 54 56 58 61 65 69 71 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 55 54 52 48 46 45 46 48 50 53 57 61 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT