* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP072018 07/06/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 28 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 8 12 15 14 19 24 32 32 44 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 7 4 2 4 0 2 0 1 -7 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 221 234 244 241 242 238 239 248 271 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.9 22.0 22.7 22.4 21.7 22.0 21.3 22.5 22.9 23.2 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 92 83 90 87 79 82 74 86 90 94 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -54.0 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 51 48 43 40 34 28 24 21 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 21 20 18 17 14 11 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 4 -5 -26 -24 -2 -4 0 -3 -6 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -4 -5 0 0 21 3 -17 -28 -31 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 13 13 14 18 11 8 7 6 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1471 1542 1620 1695 1727 1813 1925 1792 1632 1462 1314 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.5 22.1 22.6 23.0 23.7 24.3 24.7 25.1 25.3 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.4 128.6 129.8 131.0 132.1 134.2 136.3 138.3 140.1 142.0 143.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 10 9 9 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -15. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. -2. -8. -17. -27. -29. -30. -31. -33. -38. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -9. -8. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -10. -16. -22. -26. -29. -27. -25. -23. -20. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -17. -21. -24. -29. -36. -47. -56. -67. -70. -74. -77. -82. -89. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.9 127.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072018 FABIO 07/06/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.20 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.19 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 254.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 FABIO 07/06/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##