* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/06/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 61 62 64 65 63 60 60 61 63 65 67 70 74 78 81 V (KT) LAND 55 59 61 62 64 65 63 60 60 61 63 65 67 70 74 78 81 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 64 66 68 71 70 66 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 4 8 6 4 14 15 24 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 0 1 1 2 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 75 15 9 359 301 312 287 293 285 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.8 26.1 26.2 26.5 26.4 26.0 26.6 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 112 115 116 119 119 116 123 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 110 109 112 113 117 118 116 123 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.2 -55.1 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 -54.8 -55.2 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 6 8 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 65 62 60 60 57 53 50 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 9 10 10 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 61 57 51 52 35 35 32 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 25 1 7 14 -8 -9 0 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -5 -3 -2 -2 -3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1106 1049 1002 961 919 860 831 589 431 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.5 12.3 13.1 13.9 14.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.4 44.4 45.4 46.4 47.4 49.8 52.9 56.6 60.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 11 14 17 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 2 9 9 0 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 8. 5. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 19. 23. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 10.3 43.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/06/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 8.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.81 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.27 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.94 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 31.8% 21.7% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.9% 23.2% 18.4% 9.1% 3.1% 9.8% 3.8% 2.3% Bayesian: 5.3% 10.5% 7.5% 1.0% 0.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 8.0% 21.8% 15.9% 8.7% 1.2% 3.6% 5.7% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/06/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/06/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 61 62 64 65 63 60 60 61 63 65 67 70 74 78 81 18HR AGO 55 54 56 57 59 60 58 55 55 56 58 60 62 65 69 73 76 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 54 55 53 50 50 51 53 55 57 60 64 68 71 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 48 46 43 43 44 46 48 50 53 57 61 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT