* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP072018 07/05/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 66 60 53 40 30 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 71 66 60 53 40 30 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 69 62 55 47 35 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 4 8 5 6 9 9 17 22 26 23 32 35 44 40 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 17 19 14 14 14 7 9 0 1 0 4 0 0 -9 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 238 241 230 205 166 254 255 250 246 250 243 268 285 288 294 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.9 25.0 24.6 23.2 23.1 22.2 21.8 21.8 22.0 22.6 22.7 22.4 22.8 23.0 23.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 114 110 95 94 85 80 80 81 87 88 84 89 91 93 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 62 60 59 55 52 47 42 38 36 31 29 26 26 26 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 34 34 33 30 26 23 20 18 15 12 9 7 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 26 10 6 5 -6 -24 -21 -22 -23 -31 -40 -53 -58 -72 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 43 16 0 2 -5 8 -8 4 -2 -19 -16 -15 -18 -20 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 19 23 26 31 16 17 18 15 7 7 7 8 5 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1264 1316 1337 1379 1432 1551 1652 1701 1775 1847 1865 1786 1672 1537 1413 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.7 19.4 20.1 20.7 22.0 23.2 24.3 25.2 25.9 26.5 27.0 27.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.1 123.3 124.4 125.6 126.8 129.0 131.2 133.3 135.2 136.7 138.1 139.3 140.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 10 9 7 7 7 7 8 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -7. -14. -19. -25. -30. -34. -38. -42. -46. -49. -53. -56. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -4. -7. -11. -17. -23. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -18. -25. -29. -32. -34. -34. -33. -32. -29. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -15. -22. -35. -45. -52. -60. -68. -73. -80. -87. -96.-105.-110.-114. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 18.0 122.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072018 FABIO 07/05/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.03 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 417.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 2.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 FABIO 07/05/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##