* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP072018 07/04/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 75 70 64 57 44 34 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 75 70 64 57 44 34 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 74 67 60 52 39 30 25 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 4 5 5 5 6 8 12 16 22 18 13 7 17 30 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 16 17 16 12 9 6 2 0 -2 -1 3 4 6 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 286 209 208 196 187 249 270 246 251 247 235 218 267 280 286 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 24.9 25.0 24.2 23.1 22.1 22.2 21.6 22.0 22.3 22.3 22.1 22.6 22.6 22.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 113 114 106 94 84 85 78 82 84 84 81 87 88 89 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -53.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 66 61 60 59 53 49 43 41 38 36 33 31 29 28 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 37 37 35 34 33 29 25 24 20 18 15 13 10 8 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 31 25 14 8 3 -27 -12 -18 -23 -38 -50 -54 -61 -71 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 63 27 2 -8 12 2 6 -8 2 -21 -20 -17 -13 0 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 8 14 19 25 27 14 20 11 12 3 12 5 12 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1213 1259 1309 1336 1376 1477 1610 1654 1721 1792 1798 1854 1740 1591 1453 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.2 18.9 19.6 20.2 21.7 23.0 24.1 25.1 26.0 26.8 27.5 28.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.0 122.2 123.4 124.6 125.7 128.0 130.2 132.4 134.4 136.1 137.5 138.8 140.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 10 8 7 7 8 9 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -21. -27. -33. -38. -42. -47. -51. -55. -59. -62. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -0. -2. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -17. -24. -28. -31. -32. -32. -32. -31. -28. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -23. -36. -46. -52. -60. -66. -71. -75. -77. -80. -87. -90. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.5 121.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072018 FABIO 07/04/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.02 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 428.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 FABIO 07/04/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##