* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP072018 07/04/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 80 76 69 63 50 40 32 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 80 76 69 63 50 40 32 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 80 73 66 59 45 34 27 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 7 5 5 4 9 11 14 17 20 19 17 18 28 35 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 13 15 15 14 5 4 -2 -1 -5 -1 1 0 -3 -2 -8 SHEAR DIR 333 276 190 190 213 194 233 234 250 245 245 226 228 230 256 265 259 SST (C) 26.5 25.3 24.9 24.9 23.9 22.5 22.1 21.5 21.6 22.0 22.0 21.6 22.2 22.6 22.7 23.1 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 130 118 113 113 103 88 83 77 78 81 81 77 84 88 89 93 102 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -51.4 -51.9 -52.2 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -53.1 -53.4 -54.1 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 66 66 66 61 61 57 52 47 43 38 36 34 30 23 20 20 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 38 39 37 35 32 28 25 23 20 18 15 12 9 7 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 43 40 36 28 13 0 -14 -27 -19 -17 -18 -34 -29 -17 -5 -5 -6 200 MB DIV 51 64 66 29 -11 -8 14 23 3 20 -3 -16 -21 2 -13 -2 -6 700-850 TADV 4 4 9 16 22 28 22 20 15 15 10 8 8 6 6 5 6 LAND (KM) 1181 1217 1269 1309 1335 1412 1536 1591 1639 1704 1762 1758 1819 1620 1424 1244 1057 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.6 18.3 19.1 19.8 21.3 22.7 23.9 25.0 26.0 27.0 28.0 28.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.9 121.2 122.4 123.6 124.8 127.0 129.2 131.2 133.2 135.0 136.5 137.9 139.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 13 12 12 11 10 9 8 9 9 11 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -22. -29. -36. -42. -47. -52. -57. -60. -64. -68. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 15. 15. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -16. -21. -26. -29. -30. -31. -31. -31. -29. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -16. -22. -35. -45. -53. -59. -66. -71. -76. -81. -84. -89. -96.-103. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 16.9 119.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072018 FABIO 07/04/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.03 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.15 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 430.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 FABIO 07/04/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##