* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP072018 07/04/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 86 81 76 70 55 43 32 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 86 81 76 70 55 43 32 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 86 81 74 66 50 37 28 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 6 4 3 7 8 9 11 11 15 18 18 13 25 36 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 8 15 19 10 8 1 -1 -2 -4 -2 0 -1 -2 -5 -9 SHEAR DIR 349 2 298 176 177 195 197 223 239 241 229 235 206 219 250 263 252 SST (C) 26.2 26.2 25.1 24.7 24.6 22.4 21.7 21.5 21.4 21.7 22.1 21.7 22.2 22.8 22.8 22.9 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 115 111 110 87 80 77 76 78 82 78 83 90 90 91 96 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -51.4 -51.8 -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -53.1 -53.5 -54.2 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 67 62 61 54 49 42 39 34 32 24 17 15 17 18 MODEL VTX (KT) 40 40 40 40 39 34 31 26 25 21 19 16 12 8 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 64 44 40 39 34 12 5 -24 -15 -10 -13 -27 -15 7 -8 -11 -1 200 MB DIV 57 47 49 31 6 -16 21 16 16 7 7 -6 -18 -19 1 -5 -5 700-850 TADV 5 3 5 10 17 30 29 20 23 6 11 7 4 2 4 -1 4 LAND (KM) 1119 1139 1176 1233 1272 1339 1448 1525 1566 1634 1718 1750 1831 1656 1486 1312 1151 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.4 18.1 18.8 19.5 21.1 22.6 24.0 25.1 26.1 26.9 27.6 28.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.7 119.9 121.1 122.3 123.6 126.0 128.2 130.3 132.3 134.2 135.9 137.5 139.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -7. -15. -24. -32. -40. -47. -52. -58. -62. -66. -70. -73. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. -6. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -17. -21. -27. -29. -32. -33. -34. -34. -33. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -14. -20. -35. -47. -58. -64. -71. -75. -82. -88. -93. -99.-108.-114. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 16.7 118.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072018 FABIO 07/04/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.01 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.22 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 420.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 FABIO 07/04/18 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##