* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP072018 07/04/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 96 95 92 87 71 54 41 33 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 96 95 92 87 71 54 41 33 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 95 92 86 77 58 41 30 24 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 4 4 1 2 5 5 7 13 12 20 22 25 30 41 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 6 8 17 13 10 2 2 -3 -1 -2 0 1 0 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 338 350 52 312 124 189 172 230 246 256 233 240 222 235 256 251 256 SST (C) 26.9 26.6 26.4 24.9 24.2 22.2 21.1 22.1 21.3 21.2 21.9 21.4 21.7 21.9 22.3 22.4 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 129 113 106 85 73 84 75 74 80 75 78 80 85 86 94 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -51.2 -51.7 -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -52.0 -52.7 -53.3 -53.6 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 68 67 67 66 67 61 57 50 43 37 33 31 23 17 14 15 16 MODEL VTX (KT) 40 42 41 41 41 37 32 27 25 21 18 15 12 8 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 68 63 43 39 41 21 15 -2 -8 0 0 -2 -2 0 -4 -13 -15 200 MB DIV 66 60 30 41 25 -3 10 27 18 13 17 0 -19 -22 -13 -8 1 700-850 TADV 4 7 6 8 12 22 30 18 14 16 6 8 3 6 4 3 6 LAND (KM) 1067 1105 1140 1175 1226 1282 1382 1513 1553 1616 1702 1719 1834 1720 1553 1379 1207 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.8 17.3 18.0 18.7 20.3 21.8 23.2 24.5 25.6 26.5 27.3 27.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.3 118.6 119.8 121.0 122.2 124.6 127.0 129.2 131.4 133.5 135.4 136.9 138.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 14 13 12 12 10 9 8 9 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -16. -27. -35. -44. -51. -57. -63. -68. -72. -76. -80. -84. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 0. -3. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -8. -16. -21. -26. -30. -33. -33. -34. -33. -32. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -3. -8. -24. -41. -54. -62. -71. -77. -84. -90. -98.-105.-114.-121. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 16.2 117.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072018 FABIO 07/04/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.01 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 408.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.6% 9.0% 4.5% 2.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 7.0% 1.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 FABIO 07/04/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##