* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP072018 07/03/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 94 96 99 97 88 75 60 47 38 30 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 94 96 99 97 88 75 60 47 38 30 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 94 95 94 90 75 58 40 30 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 2 3 4 1 10 2 5 6 10 9 11 13 17 19 15 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 2 3 6 7 14 9 2 4 -2 0 -2 -1 -3 3 4 SHEAR DIR 29 143 116 59 320 102 200 188 237 231 257 257 250 227 228 219 243 SST (C) 27.7 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.1 24.1 21.8 21.3 22.0 21.1 21.0 21.8 21.4 21.6 21.6 22.1 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 137 133 131 126 105 81 76 83 73 71 79 75 77 77 82 83 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.0 -51.3 -51.9 -51.9 -50.7 -51.4 -50.7 -50.7 -50.7 -50.8 -50.9 -50.9 -50.6 -51.0 -51.3 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 68 67 69 65 65 64 61 58 52 46 43 42 35 31 20 19 18 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 40 42 44 44 42 38 33 28 26 22 19 15 13 7 6 3 850 MB ENV VOR 66 75 81 76 66 55 30 23 -4 -7 -18 -18 -17 -18 -14 -25 -19 200 MB DIV 89 91 80 9 -9 43 1 12 16 18 0 13 -7 -14 -20 -14 -19 700-850 TADV 1 0 5 4 6 9 19 32 14 21 13 9 10 2 7 5 9 LAND (KM) 1004 1030 1074 1104 1138 1231 1290 1374 1508 1518 1579 1663 1719 1838 1735 1591 1452 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.8 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.9 20.4 22.1 23.6 25.0 26.0 26.6 27.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.0 116.3 117.5 118.8 120.0 122.4 124.8 127.1 129.4 131.5 133.4 135.0 136.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 13 12 11 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -8. -17. -27. -34. -41. -48. -54. -58. -63. -68. -72. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. -0. -6. -13. -18. -22. -25. -27. -27. -30. -29. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 9. 7. -2. -15. -30. -43. -52. -60. -67. -74. -79. -89. -94.-100. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 15.2 115.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072018 FABIO 07/03/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.14 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.56 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 375.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.49 -3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 20.6% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 22.1% 26.3% 16.0% 10.6% 2.3% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.7% 16.0% 11.0% 3.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 FABIO 07/03/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##