* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP072018 07/01/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 65 76 88 100 116 127 125 114 98 81 67 55 46 36 27 18 V (KT) LAND 55 65 76 88 100 116 127 125 114 98 81 67 55 46 36 27 18 V (KT) LGEM 55 66 77 90 102 122 125 111 91 71 53 39 30 23 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 7 3 6 7 8 10 6 6 1 5 6 11 12 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 3 4 4 1 1 5 6 15 17 10 8 10 7 4 2 SHEAR DIR 52 51 49 25 47 37 56 45 11 60 186 205 202 193 214 224 239 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 27.1 26.4 25.0 24.3 23.0 22.7 21.9 21.7 22.1 22.4 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 153 152 150 148 136 129 114 107 94 90 82 79 83 86 87 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.0 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 4 4 2 1 0 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 73 74 72 74 73 70 69 62 61 58 57 55 49 40 36 28 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 29 32 36 41 47 48 46 41 35 30 26 23 18 14 10 850 MB ENV VOR 54 57 61 58 63 74 82 85 64 54 34 35 2 11 8 16 3 200 MB DIV 67 91 102 103 114 49 51 -17 -13 20 8 19 21 1 -3 -13 -21 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -4 -2 -4 -2 4 5 -2 12 30 18 33 23 17 14 LAND (KM) 826 867 909 962 1027 1077 1123 1220 1305 1421 1493 1619 1725 1774 1869 1800 1632 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.5 14.2 15.1 16.0 17.1 18.3 19.8 21.4 22.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.9 109.1 110.2 111.3 112.4 114.5 116.8 119.3 121.8 124.3 126.8 129.4 131.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 14 14 14 13 11 11 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 47 35 40 34 16 12 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 82.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 21. 29. 29. 22. 13. 7. 0. -2. -7. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 3. 6. 11. 16. 25. 23. 13. 3. -3. -9. -13. -15. -16. -15. -15. -14. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 10. 21. 33. 45. 61. 72. 70. 59. 43. 26. 12. -0. -9. -19. -28. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.3 107.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072018 FABIO 07/01/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.58 14.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 15.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.51 9.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.67 12.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 123.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -13.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 14.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 9.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.31 2.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 47% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 73% is 5.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 68% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 10.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 47.5% 72.8% 68.0% 59.3% 42.2% 32.1% 36.6% 12.2% Logistic: 44.3% 75.5% 65.6% 55.6% 23.6% 60.6% 38.0% 6.2% Bayesian: 82.3% 94.5% 95.9% 94.9% 65.0% 83.7% 40.2% 0.0% Consensus: 58.0% 80.9% 76.5% 70.0% 43.6% 58.8% 38.3% 6.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 FABIO 07/01/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##