* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FABIO EP072018 07/01/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 49 58 67 85 98 111 115 108 97 87 74 64 56 45 34 V (KT) LAND 35 41 49 58 67 85 98 111 115 108 97 87 74 64 56 45 34 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 43 49 56 74 96 110 105 88 71 55 41 31 24 18 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 7 5 4 7 8 2 4 4 3 5 9 10 10 17 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 0 0 0 -1 4 5 3 10 11 11 5 14 5 5 SHEAR DIR 24 17 48 28 25 34 351 75 67 47 105 185 222 235 197 212 212 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.3 26.4 25.0 24.4 22.9 22.7 22.4 22.1 22.9 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 152 153 151 148 138 129 114 108 93 91 87 84 92 94 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.0 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 -53.1 -52.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 69 71 70 74 74 74 69 70 68 69 63 65 59 54 42 36 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 21 23 24 30 35 42 46 44 39 36 32 28 25 20 14 850 MB ENV VOR 45 48 48 53 58 59 62 73 67 45 30 20 11 11 12 21 24 200 MB DIV 57 38 40 74 88 106 76 103 5 9 6 2 26 22 5 0 -12 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 1 0 -3 -2 -3 0 -3 3 6 43 23 21 24 23 LAND (KM) 801 826 859 893 927 1033 1082 1128 1201 1274 1383 1462 1612 1782 1881 1854 1611 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.4 12.7 13.3 14.1 14.9 16.0 17.2 18.5 19.9 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.8 106.9 108.0 109.1 110.2 112.3 114.4 116.6 119.0 121.5 124.0 126.5 129.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 38 50 46 36 40 18 12 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 64.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 22. 21. 19. 16. 13. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 9. 17. 31. 39. 37. 30. 24. 16. 11. 7. 2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 17. 10. 2. -2. -6. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 23. 32. 50. 63. 76. 80. 73. 62. 52. 39. 29. 21. 10. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.4 105.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072018 FABIO 07/01/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.75 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.65 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.39 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 45% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.1% 36.5% 22.9% 16.7% 12.1% 16.9% 45.2% 45.0% Logistic: 14.9% 61.7% 44.2% 30.0% 19.0% 46.5% 51.2% 23.9% Bayesian: 4.0% 67.1% 45.9% 22.2% 10.9% 79.8% 69.1% 5.0% Consensus: 10.7% 55.1% 37.7% 23.0% 14.0% 47.7% 55.2% 24.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 FABIO 07/01/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##