* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN EP072018 07/01/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 40 48 56 71 86 100 111 106 98 89 76 66 59 51 42 V (KT) LAND 30 34 40 48 56 71 86 100 111 106 98 89 76 66 59 51 42 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 42 47 62 80 98 103 94 79 63 48 36 28 23 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 7 5 5 7 3 9 8 10 8 7 5 11 8 16 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 2 0 2 -1 2 4 7 11 15 5 8 1 7 SHEAR DIR 53 35 21 34 22 20 345 67 65 52 18 1 275 287 214 218 208 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.0 26.5 25.6 23.7 22.9 23.1 22.5 22.9 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 150 149 150 152 148 145 135 130 121 101 92 95 88 93 104 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -53.9 -53.2 -54.1 -52.6 -52.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.2 -51.5 -51.2 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 71 70 71 71 73 73 72 67 66 62 61 56 55 51 41 34 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 21 23 28 34 40 45 43 41 37 32 28 24 21 17 850 MB ENV VOR 44 45 48 46 51 57 71 72 81 68 62 43 35 21 13 36 39 200 MB DIV 69 50 42 50 79 80 101 88 18 -40 23 31 -13 1 16 -16 -9 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -1 0 0 -4 -2 -9 -2 1 3 3 27 21 16 12 11 LAND (KM) 786 798 827 858 890 985 1080 1110 1191 1271 1382 1473 1588 1739 1883 1947 1654 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.2 12.5 13.1 13.8 14.5 15.4 16.4 17.5 18.8 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.8 106.0 107.1 108.2 109.3 111.5 113.6 115.7 118.1 120.6 123.1 125.6 128.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 13 14 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 35 45 59 47 34 28 12 9 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 48.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 26. 27. 25. 23. 21. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 28. 39. 37. 33. 26. 17. 12. 7. 4. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 18. 26. 41. 56. 71. 81. 76. 68. 59. 46. 36. 29. 21. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.2 104.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072018 SEVEN 07/01/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.78 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.64 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.41 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 25.0% 19.5% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 22.2% 41.4% Logistic: 2.6% 18.3% 9.4% 4.1% 1.3% 13.2% 36.3% 23.8% Bayesian: 2.6% 43.5% 22.1% 6.9% 1.0% 4.2% 6.8% 6.7% Consensus: 5.6% 28.9% 17.0% 8.6% 0.8% 5.8% 21.8% 23.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072018 SEVEN 07/01/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##