* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052018 06/24/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 31 29 27 24 20 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 31 29 27 24 20 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 26 23 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 16 11 8 6 3 6 8 8 3 8 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -1 0 2 2 1 2 2 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 44 47 51 39 5 302 316 289 283 204 225 201 193 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 26.8 26.6 26.0 25.3 24.3 24.2 23.3 23.0 22.8 22.8 23.2 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 131 129 123 115 104 104 94 92 90 90 94 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 61 58 55 50 49 48 50 49 47 40 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 9 10 11 10 10 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 46 37 37 31 33 34 33 27 32 24 16 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 36 29 10 17 -13 -15 -23 -10 -21 -18 -24 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 0 1 1 0 4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1014 964 921 905 870 876 952 1062 1170 1321 1499 1707 1913 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.4 17.2 17.9 18.5 19.4 19.9 20.2 20.4 20.3 20.2 19.9 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.8 116.1 116.4 116.9 117.3 118.5 119.9 121.4 123.2 125.1 127.2 129.4 131.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 8. 5. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -16. -19. -21. -21. -23. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.6 115.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052018 FIVE 06/24/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.58 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.3% 1.8% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052018 FIVE 06/24/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##