* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOTTA EP042018 06/16/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 48 49 52 55 58 61 63 65 68 69 71 72 75 78 V (KT) LAND 45 45 41 37 34 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 37 34 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 9 8 6 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -1 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 358 360 14 359 1 357 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 147 146 144 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 72 73 74 75 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 38 52 45 40 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 71 76 69 66 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 0 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 53 25 -4 -24 -45 -102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 99.2 99.3 99.3 99.4 99.5 99.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 18 15 14 12 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 23. 24. 26. 27. 30. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.0 99.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042018 CARLOTTA 06/16/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.63 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.61 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 -5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.16 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 23.3% 18.3% 13.7% 9.5% 12.2% 15.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 9.0% 6.1% 2.2% 1.5% 3.8% 8.2% 10.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 0.9% Consensus: 4.0% 11.3% 8.3% 5.4% 3.7% 5.4% 8.3% 3.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042018 CARLOTTA 06/16/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##