* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042018 06/15/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 41 46 51 55 57 58 61 63 65 66 67 69 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 41 46 51 55 57 43 35 31 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 34 36 38 41 46 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 11 13 16 15 12 7 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 0 -1 1 0 0 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 358 352 359 10 24 41 46 53 45 23 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 150 151 151 153 153 153 153 152 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -52.8 -53.4 -52.7 -53.4 -52.6 -53.4 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 9 8 11 8 10 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 79 76 74 71 69 68 67 67 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 4 5 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 1 -6 -21 -12 -6 23 33 46 46 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 40 43 55 33 9 34 47 70 33 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 3 1 0 -1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 167 149 130 120 110 85 60 40 20 4 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 100.2 100.4 100.5 100.5 100.5 100.4 100.3 100.3 100.3 100.4 100.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 19 22 23 24 25 25 25 24 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 29. 31. 33. 35. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 16. 21. 25. 27. 28. 31. 33. 35. 36. 37. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.3 100.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042018 FOUR 06/15/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.77 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.48 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 20.2% 15.1% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 14.2% Logistic: 2.4% 14.4% 6.6% 3.2% 1.0% 5.6% 7.4% 10.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% Consensus: 3.6% 12.1% 7.4% 4.8% 0.4% 1.9% 6.9% 8.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042018 FOUR 06/15/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##