* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/13/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 77 71 69 65 63 57 51 47 32 26 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 77 71 69 65 63 57 50 45 30 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 76 69 65 62 56 49 39 38 30 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 5 6 5 4 3 7 12 16 25 23 28 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 1 0 -1 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 59 2 4 304 233 194 216 245 227 224 214 226 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.6 25.7 23.4 25.0 27.2 26.2 22.9 24.4 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 135 133 127 119 95 112 136 126 92 108 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.1 -50.7 -51.0 -50.2 -50.8 -50.2 -49.9 -49.9 -49.8 -49.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 4 5 3 5 3 6 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 72 70 66 65 68 66 66 62 53 47 40 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 24 25 23 23 21 18 15 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 48 36 39 57 40 42 23 49 36 42 63 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 82 62 30 30 27 27 42 33 42 18 35 -21 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 -4 -6 12 24 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 355 350 352 350 295 181 25 11 58 -22 -233 -381 -653 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.0 19.4 19.9 20.3 21.3 22.7 24.3 26.1 28.2 30.7 33.5 36.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.5 108.7 108.9 109.2 109.4 109.7 110.1 110.4 110.6 110.7 110.5 110.1 109.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 5 6 8 9 10 11 13 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 5 4 4 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -5. -12. -18. -22. -24. -29. -32. -34. -36. -38. -41. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -1. -4. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -9. -7. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -10. -15. -27. -27. -25. -23. -21. -19. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -16. -20. -22. -28. -34. -38. -53. -59. -63. -68. -70. -72. -73. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 18.6 108.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/13/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.19 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 197.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/13/18 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##