* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/12/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 107 103 101 98 89 79 63 50 39 29 27 23 23 23 23 24 V (KT) LAND 110 107 103 101 98 89 79 63 47 42 31 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 110 106 101 95 90 80 69 57 42 39 36 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 2 2 1 0 1 5 7 13 16 25 22 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -3 -3 0 0 -1 -3 0 -3 -4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 14 82 110 168 170 29 315 277 272 251 238 245 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.3 25.2 22.7 23.3 26.4 27.3 22.9 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 137 135 133 124 113 88 95 127 137 91 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.5 -51.0 -51.3 -51.6 -50.7 -51.2 -50.7 -50.9 -50.4 -49.8 -49.9 -49.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.7 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 4 5 4 5 3 4 4 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 74 72 71 69 65 67 64 65 59 49 41 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 27 25 27 27 24 23 18 15 10 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 37 47 44 37 59 45 54 27 55 41 28 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 103 93 79 50 25 37 36 27 21 32 -3 4 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -1 0 0 0 -5 -5 -4 4 0 -5 12 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 363 358 355 358 366 272 145 41 -12 19 11 -134 -203 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.3 19.6 20.5 21.6 22.8 24.3 26.0 27.9 30.0 32.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.3 108.5 108.7 108.9 109.1 109.5 109.9 110.4 110.8 111.0 111.1 111.2 111.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 6 5 4 5 1 0 0 0 1 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -13. -23. -34. -44. -50. -53. -58. -62. -64. -66. -69. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 3. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -1. -1. -3. -5. -13. -19. -27. -35. -31. -28. -25. -23. -21. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -9. -12. -21. -31. -47. -60. -71. -81. -83. -87. -87. -87. -87. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 18.2 108.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/12/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.01 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.83 4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 200.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 -3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 14.6% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 2.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 5.7% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/12/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##