* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/12/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 114 112 106 101 92 83 72 58 46 34 28 23 23 24 25 28 V (KT) LAND 115 114 112 106 101 92 83 72 58 42 36 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 115 114 109 103 96 84 74 62 49 36 35 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 5 3 4 4 6 4 7 9 16 23 27 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 0 0 -2 1 -1 -2 0 -1 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 31 56 55 65 80 344 357 281 270 255 243 237 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.0 25.7 24.0 21.8 23.3 27.1 24.3 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 140 137 135 131 118 101 78 95 135 106 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -52.0 -51.6 -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -50.7 -50.9 -50.8 -50.7 -50.0 -50.0 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.7 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 4 4 4 5 4 3 3 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 77 74 74 71 66 63 63 65 64 54 48 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 26 27 24 24 24 22 20 17 13 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 4 28 49 40 42 59 48 34 22 47 18 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 149 110 84 58 46 16 24 25 27 42 8 3 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 -6 -6 -5 3 1 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 354 353 353 349 350 341 234 115 52 -23 45 -80 -218 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.2 18.5 18.9 19.2 19.9 20.8 21.9 23.2 24.8 26.7 28.9 31.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.9 108.2 108.4 108.6 108.8 109.3 109.8 110.3 110.8 111.1 111.2 110.9 110.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 9 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 7 7 5 4 4 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -14. -24. -35. -47. -56. -61. -64. -68. -70. -72. -76. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -9. -14. -23. -25. -22. -20. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -6. -7. -5. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -9. -14. -23. -32. -43. -57. -69. -81. -87. -92. -92. -91. -90. -87. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.8 107.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/12/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.69 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 2.8% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 5.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/12/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##