* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/11/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 34 29 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 34 29 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 35 32 29 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 11 9 13 15 16 20 12 9 4 10 12 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 5 6 4 0 0 0 3 8 10 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 226 223 208 196 192 173 177 122 95 70 106 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 117 116 115 115 116 115 113 111 110 110 110 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.9 -51.8 -52.3 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 56 50 47 41 32 28 24 24 21 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 14 12 11 9 8 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 76 57 36 34 55 55 58 67 68 65 50 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 9 8 19 -5 -3 16 12 16 -4 -6 30 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 4 7 2 0 -5 -2 -3 -1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 916 956 997 1040 1074 1144 1192 1235 1271 1279 1301 1317 1332 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.6 16.5 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.2 16.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.9 116.5 117.0 117.6 118.1 119.1 119.7 120.2 120.6 120.7 120.9 121.0 121.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 0 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -12. -15. -17. -19. -18. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -11. -15. -22. -28. -34. -37. -38. -38. -38. -38. -39. -39. -40. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.8 115.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/11/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.41 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.15 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 217.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/11/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##