* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/10/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 73 81 88 95 102 100 91 78 68 61 50 42 31 25 20 16 V (KT) LAND 65 73 81 88 95 102 100 91 78 68 61 50 39 34 30 30 25 V (KT) LGEM 65 74 81 86 89 93 92 84 73 64 56 47 35 31 29 30 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 9 4 8 11 4 7 4 2 1 3 11 10 14 21 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 3 -1 0 4 1 -2 -2 -2 -5 -4 1 0 -1 -7 SHEAR DIR 45 21 54 78 103 80 76 69 332 8 316 266 273 262 231 214 195 SST (C) 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.2 27.7 26.8 25.9 25.0 23.2 22.1 21.4 21.4 23.2 26.9 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 154 152 150 146 144 138 129 121 111 93 81 73 73 92 131 123 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 -50.7 -50.6 -50.4 -50.1 -50.4 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 85 84 83 83 79 79 74 73 68 67 67 67 66 61 54 48 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 23 24 27 27 27 26 22 20 20 16 15 11 9 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 15 20 21 25 47 52 76 59 75 38 37 24 37 15 38 29 200 MB DIV 76 95 96 116 125 122 88 75 53 30 39 14 -10 -8 2 19 31 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -10 -7 -6 -1 -3 -1 0 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 339 307 286 280 264 274 280 289 315 199 68 22 -6 -40 -37 30 15 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.8 16.4 16.9 17.4 18.1 18.7 19.3 20.1 21.2 22.3 23.5 24.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.8 104.5 105.2 105.8 106.4 107.2 107.7 108.2 108.7 109.4 110.1 110.7 111.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 31 19 15 11 9 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 56.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -8. -12. -17. -21. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. -2. -4. -5. -9. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 15. 8. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 23. 30. 37. 35. 26. 13. 3. -4. -15. -23. -34. -40. -45. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 15.1 103.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/10/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.50 9.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 12.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.56 8.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.70 10.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -27.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.94 -12.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 11.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 8.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 54% is 8.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 66% is 5.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 53.9% 65.7% 50.9% 42.8% 27.8% 30.0% 17.1% 11.2% Logistic: 41.8% 71.4% 52.0% 38.4% 15.9% 20.0% 3.4% 1.0% Bayesian: 45.0% 60.6% 71.8% 65.1% 5.1% 38.7% 3.5% 0.0% Consensus: 46.9% 65.9% 58.2% 48.8% 16.3% 29.6% 8.0% 4.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/10/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##