* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/10/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 33 29 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 37 33 29 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 37 34 30 27 22 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 11 8 7 10 13 19 25 13 8 7 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 4 3 5 4 -2 -1 -1 4 5 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 220 223 228 209 198 160 167 155 136 94 109 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 25.8 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.6 25.7 25.5 25.3 25.4 25.4 25.3 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 119 117 116 115 117 117 114 112 112 112 111 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 61 59 56 50 43 33 28 24 25 21 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 13 12 10 8 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 77 75 49 38 56 62 64 67 81 60 56 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 3 -2 9 16 -5 11 15 12 2 -10 7 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 3 5 1 0 -3 -1 -2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 908 944 983 1024 1067 1143 1203 1252 1288 1304 1319 1342 1357 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.5 16.4 16.3 16.2 16.1 16.0 15.9 15.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.4 116.0 116.6 117.2 117.7 118.8 119.6 120.2 120.6 120.7 120.8 121.0 121.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -17. -19. -18. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -15. -22. -28. -34. -39. -39. -40. -40. -40. -40. -40. -40. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.5 115.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/10/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.42 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.28 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 204.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/10/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##