* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/10/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 61 65 77 82 85 83 74 70 64 57 48 39 39 39 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 61 65 77 82 85 83 74 70 64 57 48 36 38 38 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 56 60 64 72 77 78 75 69 63 56 48 39 29 31 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 10 6 8 9 10 6 7 5 4 1 3 4 5 4 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 4 4 2 -1 1 2 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 19 4 28 30 9 73 72 92 40 341 85 79 324 294 283 234 241 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 29.6 28.9 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.3 26.5 25.5 24.2 22.8 21.3 22.1 27.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 161 153 149 146 142 140 134 126 116 103 88 73 82 134 133 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -52.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 -50.7 -50.7 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 3 3 700-500 MB RH 87 85 84 85 85 82 83 79 75 72 74 71 65 61 58 55 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 21 21 25 25 26 25 21 20 19 16 13 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -20 -8 10 10 0 21 35 61 52 65 58 31 15 38 11 23 200 MB DIV 104 109 112 113 117 124 137 107 105 48 53 36 24 -13 -22 -2 -13 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -9 -9 -11 -9 -2 -3 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 483 461 436 404 388 374 354 358 357 360 341 222 122 87 -12 27 10 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.7 14.2 14.8 15.3 16.2 16.9 17.6 18.3 19.0 19.9 20.9 21.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.3 103.0 103.8 104.5 105.2 106.3 107.1 107.8 108.3 108.8 109.3 110.0 110.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 6 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 6 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 51 60 49 27 17 11 8 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 13. 9. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 6. 8. 8. 2. 1. -0. -4. -7. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 20. 32. 37. 40. 38. 29. 25. 19. 12. 3. -6. -6. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.1 102.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/10/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.72 8.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 6.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.32 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.75 6.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -26.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.94 -7.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.38 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 35.7% 26.1% 18.4% 11.9% 16.8% 36.8% 18.9% Logistic: 9.1% 49.6% 30.9% 18.2% 4.0% 34.5% 27.1% 10.4% Bayesian: 23.5% 51.9% 55.2% 26.2% 1.2% 77.1% 63.5% 8.1% Consensus: 15.8% 45.8% 37.4% 20.9% 5.7% 42.8% 42.4% 12.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/10/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##