* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/09/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 90 81 71 61 47 35 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 90 81 71 61 47 35 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 89 78 69 61 46 35 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 14 19 20 23 18 10 11 13 12 10 7 9 9 12 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 6 4 9 9 8 8 5 4 3 5 4 8 6 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 184 185 202 198 213 228 233 183 192 194 195 155 155 114 130 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.2 25.7 25.4 25.2 25.0 24.4 24.7 24.9 25.2 26.0 26.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 131 129 127 123 118 115 113 111 105 107 109 112 121 124 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.3 -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 -52.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 69 68 66 60 54 48 42 36 33 31 28 29 27 26 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 25 25 24 22 21 18 15 13 11 10 8 7 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 77 83 78 83 91 63 34 34 27 35 48 62 49 54 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 66 58 35 31 -3 -9 -9 8 -22 10 0 0 -3 -7 -9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 0 4 2 3 6 -1 4 2 3 1 1 0 -1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 800 790 785 786 792 845 930 994 1081 1175 1274 1374 1467 1560 1661 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.6 17.5 17.4 17.0 16.5 15.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.1 113.6 114.2 114.7 115.7 116.9 118.0 119.2 120.4 121.3 122.1 122.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 5 4 4 4 5 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -13. -20. -28. -34. -40. -45. -49. -52. -54. -56. -58. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -10. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -15. -20. -23. -25. -26. -25. -24. -23. -21. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -10. -19. -29. -38. -53. -65. -74. -81. -89. -93. -95. -95. -94. -93. -93. -94. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 16.1 112.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/09/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.02 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 387.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/09/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##