* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/09/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 103 94 86 77 59 47 35 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 103 94 86 77 59 47 35 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 101 90 80 71 56 43 33 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 12 17 20 19 21 16 10 9 7 15 11 19 14 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 13 5 5 8 5 4 4 8 4 0 2 1 0 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 179 179 186 197 186 221 223 222 210 187 172 175 155 163 164 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.6 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.2 25.7 25.1 24.7 24.5 24.1 24.1 24.6 25.0 25.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 138 132 130 130 123 118 112 108 105 101 101 106 110 111 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -51.8 -51.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 68 70 71 68 60 56 52 48 46 45 45 44 41 35 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 23 25 22 21 21 17 15 12 11 9 7 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 59 71 75 67 97 75 31 49 53 67 72 99 97 90 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 116 63 40 31 25 -14 2 -14 10 17 21 10 -4 3 -14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -1 5 3 6 3 3 5 0 3 1 3 0 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 795 779 767 756 749 754 806 865 923 1000 1082 1151 1228 1305 1375 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.3 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.9 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.4 18.2 17.9 17.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.0 112.5 113.0 113.5 114.0 114.9 115.9 116.9 118.0 119.1 120.0 120.6 121.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 9 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -14. -24. -33. -41. -48. -55. -60. -63. -65. -68. -71. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -12. -8. -4. -1. -0. -0. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -12. -16. -20. -22. -23. -24. -22. -21. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -16. -24. -33. -51. -63. -75. -83. -92. -98.-103.-107.-109.-110.-110.-111. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 16.0 112.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/09/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 389.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/09/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##