* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/08/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 114 116 114 108 88 70 53 41 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 114 116 114 108 88 70 53 41 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 113 113 107 99 79 63 50 37 29 23 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 9 10 15 24 18 10 7 14 11 11 9 13 12 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 3 5 5 4 7 7 2 5 4 4 8 4 2 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 219 148 166 149 178 175 205 219 224 218 179 194 207 186 181 170 188 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.3 26.5 26.5 26.0 24.9 23.7 23.2 23.3 23.6 23.8 23.9 23.9 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 144 141 135 127 126 121 110 97 92 92 95 96 97 97 97 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.7 -51.3 -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -51.3 -50.8 -51.2 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 66 67 65 68 66 68 59 56 51 46 40 37 34 36 36 34 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 28 29 29 27 26 24 21 17 15 13 11 9 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 40 47 52 51 51 73 81 102 69 33 34 22 19 22 45 62 63 200 MB DIV 92 92 79 90 63 23 29 8 -4 -13 -19 15 -13 7 -5 17 -13 700-850 TADV -11 -6 -4 -2 -1 1 3 7 0 4 2 0 1 0 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 722 740 759 737 719 696 692 698 724 747 792 849 916 971 1001 1029 1043 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.2 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.5 111.0 111.4 111.9 112.3 113.2 114.1 114.9 115.9 116.9 118.0 118.9 119.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 17 13 6 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -18. -26. -34. -41. -48. -53. -57. -60. -64. -68. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 10. 14. 14. 13. 8. 3. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -16. -18. -20. -20. -21. -20. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 11. 9. 3. -17. -35. -52. -64. -75. -84. -93. -99.-103.-106.-110.-113. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 15.6 110.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/08/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.08 0.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 40.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.94 9.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.31 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.60 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 447.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.41 -2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 55% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 55.3% 27.3% 22.2% 21.7% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 46.4% 23.7% 23.1% 13.2% 3.6% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 37.2% 17.0% 15.1% 11.6% 5.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/08/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##