* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/07/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 67 72 80 80 74 63 53 44 35 30 26 23 19 N/A V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 67 72 80 80 74 63 53 44 35 30 26 23 19 N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 58 60 62 63 66 69 69 63 54 45 39 34 30 26 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 7 4 3 11 13 12 9 5 8 13 12 18 15 19 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 4 4 -1 -2 8 8 16 1 3 4 0 0 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 278 254 249 233 86 124 149 163 180 165 166 149 146 138 115 116 110 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.5 27.7 27.0 26.7 26.0 25.6 25.2 25.0 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 150 149 150 147 139 132 128 121 116 112 108 107 107 106 106 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -50.7 -51.0 -50.7 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -50.4 -50.7 -50.3 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 71 71 70 65 66 66 64 60 54 50 46 40 38 36 39 40 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 28 28 28 29 31 30 30 28 25 21 18 15 13 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 11 18 27 36 48 60 73 81 96 105 72 59 42 53 65 102 114 200 MB DIV 45 40 39 25 71 83 28 52 -7 -18 -6 17 13 13 8 4 17 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -4 -8 -5 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 677 706 738 765 791 825 793 756 758 776 822 874 903 915 922 928 928 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.7 16.2 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.2 18.2 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.2 109.7 110.2 110.7 111.1 111.9 112.6 113.4 114.3 115.2 116.1 116.9 117.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 20 22 24 22 11 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 54.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 3. -1. -6. -10. -13. -13. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 8. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 25. 25. 19. 8. -2. -11. -19. -25. -29. -32. -36. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.8 109.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/07/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.57 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.58 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 206.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.68 -5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 6.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 32.6% 25.3% 17.2% 12.2% 17.0% 16.4% 11.4% Logistic: 7.1% 23.4% 9.4% 5.2% 1.2% 1.7% 0.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 2.5% 13.5% 3.9% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 7.8% 23.2% 12.9% 8.0% 4.6% 6.3% 5.6% 3.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/07/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##