* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALETTA EP022018 06/06/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 49 54 58 64 69 75 77 78 72 65 54 46 39 34 29 V (KT) LAND 40 45 49 54 58 64 69 75 77 78 72 65 54 46 39 34 29 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 51 53 56 58 61 62 61 56 48 40 33 27 24 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 6 5 4 7 3 10 7 12 18 14 12 18 17 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 6 5 3 4 14 5 3 4 7 11 3 1 3 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 250 261 265 283 273 258 85 108 151 146 173 154 158 156 180 171 158 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.5 27.5 26.9 26.5 26.2 25.8 25.1 24.8 24.6 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 152 151 150 151 150 147 137 131 126 123 119 112 107 105 102 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -51.3 -51.9 -52.1 -51.1 -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -50.8 -50.7 -50.0 -50.9 -50.7 -50.9 -50.4 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 71 71 69 68 71 67 66 66 64 60 58 56 51 48 43 40 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 21 22 23 26 28 30 31 34 33 31 25 22 18 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 6 9 6 8 15 23 41 62 91 103 122 120 97 78 71 81 64 200 MB DIV 110 120 122 97 49 49 19 40 16 62 2 2 -38 -27 -20 -18 -9 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -6 -10 -6 -6 -8 -1 0 0 0 4 1 0 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 549 574 593 614 639 699 763 816 808 806 823 854 890 909 937 978 1006 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.6 15.8 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.3 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.4 107.9 108.4 108.9 109.9 111.0 112.0 113.0 114.0 114.9 115.6 116.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 29 24 20 17 16 17 21 20 7 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 20. 19. 18. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 14. 17. 21. 19. 16. 7. 3. -1. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 18. 24. 29. 35. 37. 38. 32. 25. 14. 6. -1. -6. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.6 106.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022018 ALETTA 06/06/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.72 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.47 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.69 5.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 33.0% 24.4% 17.2% 11.6% 15.5% 18.3% 16.8% Logistic: 12.6% 42.2% 29.2% 19.2% 3.2% 20.4% 8.2% 3.6% Bayesian: 24.3% 25.7% 18.1% 5.7% 0.2% 2.5% 1.3% 0.2% Consensus: 16.9% 33.6% 23.9% 14.1% 5.0% 12.8% 9.3% 6.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022018 ALETTA 06/06/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##