* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012018 05/28/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 62 61 60 57 55 53 47 49 48 47 47 48 49 50 V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 47 38 30 28 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 62 49 40 31 28 29 29 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 11 17 12 17 16 14 9 8 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -1 -4 0 -2 -2 0 2 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 222 205 200 228 197 221 178 164 200 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.7 26.8 25.8 18.1 3.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 130 129 129 130 134 123 113 75 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 110 112 111 110 112 114 105 96 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.5 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 8 5 9 4 8 1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 62 63 64 60 60 62 67 70 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 23 23 20 18 16 14 15 12 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 96 107 112 90 63 46 0 36 34 123 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 31 43 25 -19 51 41 45 32 64 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 2 8 7 5 18 3 7 14 26 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 151 105 31 -67 -155 -387 -685 -984 -999 -927 -977 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.6 29.4 30.1 31.0 31.9 34.2 36.9 39.7 42.4 44.9 47.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.2 86.5 86.7 86.9 87.1 87.5 87.6 87.3 86.1 83.9 81.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 11 13 13 14 14 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 5 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 769 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -13. -18. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 6. 5. 2. 1. -2. -8. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 28.6 86.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012018 ALBERTO 05/28/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.75 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.25 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 227.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.81 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 25.6% 16.6% 12.0% 9.3% 0.0% 12.5% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 13.7% 8.7% 2.6% 0.7% 2.3% 0.6% 0.3% Bayesian: 2.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 13.2% 8.5% 4.9% 3.3% 0.8% 4.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012018 ALBERTO 05/28/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012018 ALBERTO 05/28/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 60 47 38 30 28 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 55 54 56 43 34 26 24 24 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 55 52 51 38 29 21 19 19 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 36 28 26 26 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT