* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012018 05/27/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 48 52 57 58 57 56 56 54 53 49 43 37 37 39 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 48 41 32 28 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 45 48 41 32 28 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 16 11 6 3 9 8 17 7 8 7 10 18 21 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -1 1 -4 1 0 3 1 -2 -5 -6 -6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 208 172 171 206 228 219 235 240 217 190 181 219 220 218 243 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.7 27.3 27.4 26.9 26.8 27.1 26.4 25.8 23.7 20.3 16.2 8.3 13.2 13.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 121 128 129 122 122 126 118 113 97 81 70 62 66 66 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 113 107 112 111 105 104 107 100 95 83 72 66 61 63 63 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.6 -54.8 -54.2 -54.6 -54.0 -54.6 -54.8 -55.6 -55.4 -55.5 -55.4 -56.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.3 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 1.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 9 4 11 1 6 0 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 72 70 68 68 63 61 59 59 66 72 74 78 76 67 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 22 21 21 23 23 20 17 15 15 15 16 16 14 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 77 86 92 85 63 3 21 -11 -14 37 90 93 120 106 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 54 43 42 41 35 35 33 22 58 27 63 43 34 -1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 10 7 2 3 8 4 2 11 34 -2 11 -10 -24 -30 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 203 181 126 29 -28 -175 -372 -610 -817 -912 -846 -780 -714 -584 -428 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.5 27.6 28.6 29.5 30.3 31.9 33.8 36.1 38.4 40.8 43.0 44.9 45.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.4 84.6 84.9 85.3 85.6 86.1 86.4 86.6 86.3 85.5 83.9 81.7 79.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 9 11 11 12 12 13 10 8 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 1 3 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 13 CX,CY: 2/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 5. 2. -1. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 0. 2. 2. -1. -6. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -15. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 12. 17. 18. 17. 16. 16. 14. 13. 9. 3. -3. -3. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 26.5 84.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012018 ALBERTO 05/27/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.71 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.37 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.71 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.79 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 15.0% 10.1% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 12.2% 6.6% 1.1% 0.3% 2.3% 1.9% 0.9% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 9.1% 5.6% 2.7% 0.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012018 ALBERTO 05/27/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012018 ALBERTO 05/27/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 46 48 41 32 28 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 40 39 42 44 37 28 24 23 24 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 31 22 18 17 18 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT