* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012018 05/26/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 39 43 47 54 56 59 57 54 51 47 46 46 48 44 39 V (KT) LAND 35 36 39 43 47 54 56 59 57 43 32 28 27 28 28 29 31 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 39 40 41 43 45 37 30 28 27 28 28 29 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP SHEAR (KT) 30 23 22 25 23 13 5 13 10 11 16 19 20 18 27 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 1 -1 1 2 -3 4 -2 0 1 1 1 -3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 267 276 250 245 245 196 353 356 289 201 246 222 258 267 276 243 264 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.8 28.2 28.2 27.5 28.9 28.2 27.6 26.9 25.6 22.9 20.3 20.7 14.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 137 133 134 139 138 129 149 139 131 123 111 92 81 82 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 126 127 123 122 124 120 111 127 117 112 105 95 80 73 73 65 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.4 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 1.1 0.6 1.2 0.7 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 9 7 9 6 10 5 9 3 4 0 700-500 MB RH 72 68 66 64 63 65 60 54 57 60 59 63 66 65 67 65 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 15 18 20 23 20 20 17 14 12 10 12 13 18 17 13 850 MB ENV VOR 80 67 79 79 75 108 98 89 64 33 -6 -1 -3 41 112 166 127 200 MB DIV 31 48 87 70 63 32 -8 20 23 32 30 18 10 35 22 40 12 700-850 TADV 8 10 9 6 8 7 2 -5 9 1 3 5 14 16 0 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 184 161 100 80 158 371 339 209 84 -31 -236 -472 -542 -502 -334 -117 68 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.2 21.1 22.3 23.4 25.4 26.9 28.1 29.5 31.0 32.8 34.7 36.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.7 85.6 85.4 85.4 85.4 86.0 86.7 87.3 87.7 87.9 87.4 86.2 84.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 11 11 11 9 7 7 8 8 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 40 41 43 38 42 79 17 5 11 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 20. 19. 17. 14. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 5. 9. 7. 8. 4. -1. -5. -9. -7. -5. -0. -2. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 12. 19. 21. 24. 22. 19. 16. 12. 11. 11. 13. 9. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.3 85.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012018 ALBERTO 05/26/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.34 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.54 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 12.4% 8.3% 6.0% 5.4% 8.4% 9.2% 13.7% Logistic: 0.8% 2.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.9% 3.1% 2.1% 1.8% 2.9% 3.2% 4.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012018 ALBERTO 05/26/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012018 ALBERTO 05/26/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 39 43 47 54 56 59 57 43 32 28 27 28 28 29 31 18HR AGO 35 34 37 41 45 52 54 57 55 41 30 26 25 26 26 27 29 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 39 46 48 51 49 35 24 20 19 20 20 21 23 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 36 38 41 39 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT