* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RINA AL192017 11/07/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 44 46 50 57 58 52 52 51 49 45 41 38 33 33 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 44 46 50 57 58 52 52 51 49 45 41 38 33 33 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 39 41 42 45 46 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 20 21 23 22 23 17 21 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 0 -2 0 0 4 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 273 269 278 281 279 276 256 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.7 23.7 23.0 22.6 22.5 20.9 17.9 12.0 9.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 98 94 92 92 87 79 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 92 88 84 83 83 79 75 70 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.5 -55.2 -55.2 -55.7 -59.0 -61.2 -62.2 -60.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.0 -0.4 -1.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 60 64 68 64 59 61 64 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 18 21 20 20 21 19 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 29 31 37 29 21 -6 -48 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 34 34 10 12 33 76 59 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 19 25 26 29 27 39 68 81 -100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1695 1531 1369 1203 1043 796 905 1314 1230 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.7 33.3 34.8 36.5 38.1 41.8 45.9 50.2 54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.5 49.2 48.9 48.4 48.0 45.8 41.2 35.0 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 16 16 17 18 23 28 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -5. -9. -13. -17. -21. -27. -30. -32. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 12. 17. 23. 26. 29. 30. 33. 34. 33. 31. 29. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 3. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 11. 15. 22. 23. 17. 17. 16. 14. 10. 6. 3. -2. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.7 49.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192017 RINA 11/07/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.39 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192017 RINA 11/07/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192017 RINA 11/07/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 44 46 50 57 58 52 52 51 49 45 41 38 33 33 18HR AGO 35 34 37 41 43 47 54 55 49 49 48 46 42 38 35 30 30 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 37 41 48 49 43 43 42 40 36 32 29 24 24 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 31 38 39 33 33 32 30 26 22 19 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT