* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN AL182017 10/28/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 52 56 63 64 66 66 65 63 62 61 62 64 66 66 V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 52 46 56 57 59 59 58 56 55 54 55 57 59 59 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 45 50 46 53 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 1 3 12 18 22 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 2 7 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 41 300 267 248 222 228 212 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 28.8 27.6 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 158 158 152 136 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 144 149 154 154 149 131 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.8 -54.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 6 6 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 67 68 65 61 49 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 15 17 17 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 24 19 33 40 75 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 96 103 104 103 98 103 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 5 5 7 10 11 -47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 218 329 227 108 -43 234 601 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.8 19.9 21.3 22.6 25.8 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.4 83.9 83.4 82.3 81.2 77.8 74.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 12 15 17 19 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 53 60 76 76 54 36 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. 33. 34. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 22. 28. 29. 31. 31. 30. 28. 27. 26. 27. 29. 31. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.8 84.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182017 EIGHTEEN 10/28/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 10.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.71 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.39 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.77 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.60 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 2.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 4.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.4% 45.6% 31.0% 13.7% 10.4% 13.0% 11.6% 16.3% Logistic: 8.6% 34.4% 24.5% 7.7% 0.9% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.4% 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.1% 26.8% 18.7% 7.4% 3.8% 4.9% 3.9% 5.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182017 EIGHTEEN 10/28/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182017 EIGHTEEN 10/28/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 40 46 52 46 56 57 59 59 58 56 55 54 55 57 59 59 18HR AGO 35 34 40 46 40 50 51 53 53 52 50 49 48 49 51 53 53 12HR AGO 35 32 31 37 31 41 42 44 44 43 41 40 39 40 42 44 44 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 19 29 30 32 32 31 29 28 27 28 30 32 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT