* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/14/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 100 95 88 81 68 52 35 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 100 95 88 81 68 53 35 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 99 94 88 81 63 45 35 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 28 34 40 44 43 35 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 1 7 7 3 3 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 218 217 209 196 192 170 197 203 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.1 23.1 22.4 20.9 19.8 15.9 13.0 12.5 10.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 97 94 88 84 75 70 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 95 90 87 82 79 71 68 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.6 -55.3 -54.7 -54.3 -54.5 -53.0 -53.6 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.4 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 43 46 48 45 47 50 51 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 30 32 36 40 47 40 29 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 106 118 121 94 55 16 65 22 -41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 57 36 23 24 100 84 37 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -48 -53 -70 -89 -108 -133 31 0 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1410 1203 963 772 553 366 20 66 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.3 37.0 38.6 41.0 43.4 48.7 53.2 57.0 60.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 25.1 22.7 20.3 18.1 15.9 12.3 9.5 7.0 4.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 25 27 29 29 27 22 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 23 CX,CY: 20/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -4. -8. -12. -16. -24. -34. -48. -61. -71. -77. -82. -86. -90. -91. -92. -91. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -12. -17. -25. -28. -27. -26. -23. -22. -23. -24. -25. -26. -28. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 8. 13. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 17. 15. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 8. 15. 10. -1. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -5. -12. -19. -32. -48. -65. -78. -82. -86. -89. -90. -92. -91. -94.-100. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 35.3 25.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/14/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 43.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.03 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -13.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 477.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.43 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/14/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 17( 35) 8( 40) 3( 42) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 100 95 88 81 68 53 35 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 94 87 80 67 52 34 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 89 82 69 54 36 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 83 70 55 37 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 68 53 35 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 100 91 85 82 73 58 40 26 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 100 95 86 80 76 61 43 29 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS