* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/14/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 98 91 86 76 65 48 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 101 98 91 86 76 65 41 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 100 96 91 85 71 52 34 30 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 15 25 39 38 46 39 33 29 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 1 5 8 3 1 -2 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 235 214 211 200 199 185 185 202 221 241 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.8 24.0 23.5 22.4 21.1 18.1 14.0 13.3 12.7 10.9 5.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 102 99 94 88 80 72 71 69 67 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 96 93 91 87 82 75 69 68 66 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -55.7 -55.8 -55.2 -55.0 -54.2 -53.6 -52.8 -53.4 -54.2 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.3 1.0 0.4 1.1 0.4 -0.5 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 46 41 45 46 44 49 47 43 41 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 32 33 37 47 46 35 27 13 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 113 116 123 104 53 36 30 -22 -13 -74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 63 57 34 24 69 90 47 22 30 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -15 -43 -36 -82 -72 -102 -60 13 -9 -18 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1564 1442 1245 1005 803 512 166 -19 0 369 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.2 35.5 36.7 38.7 40.6 45.5 50.4 54.8 58.5 61.5 64.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 27.7 25.4 23.1 20.8 18.5 14.5 11.2 8.0 5.0 2.1 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 23 24 27 27 28 25 22 18 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 15 CX,CY: 13/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -15. -22. -32. -45. -58. -70. -77. -82. -86. -90. -91. -92. -91. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -8. -13. -21. -25. -24. -23. -21. -19. -20. -22. -23. -24. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 20. 21. 21. 21. 20. 17. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 6. 15. 17. 6. -5. -25. -40. -41. -40. -39. -38. -36. -35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -2. -8. -14. -24. -35. -52. -66. -88.-105.-108.-108.-108.-106.-108.-114. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 34.2 27.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/14/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.28 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -10.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 532.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/14/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 21( 38) 10( 45) 5( 47) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 101 98 91 86 76 65 41 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 96 89 84 74 63 39 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 89 84 74 63 39 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 85 75 64 40 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 71 60 36 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 101 92 86 83 77 66 42 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 101 98 89 83 79 68 44 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS